In the three transfer windows since Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital completed their acquisition of Chelsea in May of last year, the club has spent more than £1 billion on some of the best young players in the world. Additionally, they have implemented a strategy that pushes players to sign contracts with long terms—often six, seven, or eight years.
Moisés Caicedo signed an eight-year contract with an option for a ninth season after agreeing to join the club in August for a cost that may exceed £115 million from Brighton. Several of the club’s 30-man roster, including Mykhailo Mudryk (£62 million, plus £26.5 million in add-ons) and Enzo Fernández (£106.8 million), have contracts that last until 2031. According to Transfermarkt, 24 of the players are locked up until at least 2027.
This method has never been used in football before. There have been a few isolated cases in the past — Saul Gonzalez signed a nine-year contract with Atletico Madrid in 2017, Cesc Fabregas committed to Arsenal for eight years in 2006 (though he left for Barcelona after five), and Harry Kane’s final deal with Tottenham was a six-year deal — but an entire squad has never been overwhelmingly assembled through this method.
Boehly holds a 20% investment in the Los Angeles Dodgers of Major League Baseball, and it is likely that Chelsea’s strategy has been influenced at least in part by baseball, where there is no strict salary ceiling and contracts of up to ten years in length are more typical. The Blues intended to lessen the likelihood of a repeat of losing key players on free transfers, most recently when defenders Antonio Rüdiger and Andreas Christensen ran down their contracts to join Real Madrid and Barcelona, respectively.
Chelsea’s strategy is also guided by compliance with UEFA’s financial fair play (FFP) regulations, as the total transfer fee can be amortised over the course of a player’s contract, which means Caicedo’s initial £100 million fee will be recorded as £12.5 million per year over the course of his contract.
The Premier League is yet to adopt the UEFA rule limiting amortisation to a maximum of five years in effect this summer. Although there is absolutely little chance that the regulation will be enforced retroactively, that is what is anticipated to occur.
Chelsea has made a strong investment in this group of players because they feel they will develop into a potent force in English football over the course of the upcoming seasons. However, the knock-on consequence is that it puts the manager, whose responsibility it is to produce the necessary alchemy, under more immediate scrutiny.
At Southampton and later at Tottenham, Mauricio Pochettino excelled at developing young teams, leading the latter to the verge of winning the Premier League and the Champions League. Even though he only has one Ligue 1 championship, the Coupe de France, and the Trophee des Champions from a mainly unsuccessful tenure at Paris Saint-Germain, he is still one of the most well-respected managers in the game.
Boehly and Chelsea co-owner Behdad Eghbali are committed to supporting Pochettino in the long run, but Graham Potter, Pochettino’s immediate predecessor, did the same. The two confided in one another that they were resistant to any impending crisis and that Potter would get them through before bringing Chelsea back to the pinnacle of English football. Seven months later, he was let go.
Pochettino has played seven games so far, but the club is currently 14th in the Premier League, 13 points behind league leader Manchester City, having already lost three and drawn two of those games. The eighth game is on Wednesday night in the Carabao Cup against a Brighton team that plays an envious brand of football despite choosing to sell off several of their key players for a significant profit.
In fact, given the frequent raids on the south coast club, it is tempting to wonder why Boehly and Eghbali didn’t just buy Brighton: Along with co-sporting director Paul Winstanley, manager Potter, his assistant Billy Reid, coaches Bjorn Hamberg and Bruno Saltor (who left Chelsea on Monday), goalkeeping coach Ben Roberts, and analyst Kyle Macaulay, Caicedo followed goalkeeper Robert Sánchez and left-back Marc Cucurella to Stamford Bridge.
Pochettino won’t be evaluated on whether he wins the Carabao Cup, but an elimination at Stamford Bridge in the third round would cast further doubt on his influence. Because of how much has changed at Chelsea, on all levels of the organisation, the Argentine deserves more time than is customary to build a team. Since the Blues are completely different from the group that began the previous season, it is preposterous that there are any rumours in this regard thus early in the season.
But Pochettino is currently dealing with two very obvious issues that are uncomfortable for him.
Their current struggles have a familiar feel to the first. The poorest differential of any team since Potter’s hiring in September of last year, Chelsea underperformed their Expected Goals (xG) by 7.4 during his rule (21 goals from 28.4 xG).
This season, Chelsea has only scored five goals in their six Premier League games. They have an 11.61 xG. The Blues have recorded more possession than any other Premier League team, at 66.8% (Manchester City is second with 65.7%, and Arsenal is third with 63.1%). In addition, they have played solid defence, allowing just 22 shots on target, which ranks fourth in the league behind City (14), Arsenal (15), and Crystal Palace (19).
In other words, Chelsea is controlling play but not scoring, while giving up easy goals at the opposite end. Although optimists might say they are due a change of fortune, this particular mix is what led to Potter’s dismissal, and Pochettino urgently has to break the trend.
Second, the slow pace of change is uncomfortable compared to what is occurring at his old club Tottenham in London.
Moving past Harry Kane’s £86.4 million move to Bayern Munich was a monumental task, but Ange Postecoglou, the former Australia and Celtic manager, has succeeded in six games with a notably different approach that has produced encouraging results, including a 2-0 win over Manchester United and Sunday’s 2-2 draw at Arsenal.
Pochettino has limited time off due to the schedule, especially after the upcoming international break in October. Prior to that, they have travels to Burnley and Fulham, where Chelsea lost last year. Following that, they have the following games scheduled through the beginning of December: Arsenal (home), Brentford (home), Tottenham (a), Man City (h), Newcastle (a), Brighton (h), and Man Utd (a).
More urgent signals of development are desperately needed. As absurd as it seems, Chelsea has only won one of their first six league games. If this bad run continues, Boehly and Eghbali will be put to yet another early and unwelcome test of their dedication to long-term planning.
Where else should you go if things needs to change and you’ve already committed to a team of players on long-term contracts, while also overhauling the backroom staff and the executives?